Pick a class year, your team, and the opponent. Win probability and a projected goal margin come from each team's USClubLax rating (goal-margin scale), schedule strength, recent scoring form, and games played. Data: loading….
Every team on usclublax.com carries a rating on a goal-margin scale, meaning the gap between two teams' ratings roughly equals the expected goal difference if they played. The predictor starts with that gap, then makes two adjustments: a small nudge for scoring form (teams outscoring opponents by more per game get a slight bump), and a confidence discount. If either team has only played a handful of verified games, the prediction gets pulled toward 50/50 because we simply know less about them.
The adjusted gap converts to a win probability and a projected goal margin, which is what the ratings are actually built to predict. Rule of thumb straight from the ratings site: a couple points apart is close to a coin flip, while 10 or more points is usually a lopsided day. Rankings source: usclublax.com, refreshed automatically.